Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress

Rangan Gupta, Patrick Kanda, Aviral Tiwari and Mark Wohar

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, vol. 50, issue C

Abstract: In this paper we analyze whether a news-based measure of financial stress index (FSI) in the US can predict West Texas Intermediate oil returns and (realized) volatility over the monthly period of 1889:01 to 2016:12, using a dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model. Our results show that, standard linear Granger causality test fail to detect any evidence of predictability. However, the linear model is found to be misspecified due to structural breaks and nonlinearity, and hence, the result of no causality from FSI to oil returns and volatility cannot be considered reliable. When we use the DCC-MGARCH model, which is robust to such misspecifications, in 75 percent and 80 percent of the sample periods, FSI in fact do strongly predict the oil returns and volatility respectively. Overall, our results highlight that FSI is helpful in predicting oil returns and volatility, when one accounts for nonlinearity and regime changes through a robust time-varying model.

Keywords: US financial stress index; DCC-MGARCH; WTI oil returns; Realized volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940818306090
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Time-Varying Predictability of Oil Market Movements Over a Century of Data: The Role of US Financial Stress (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:50:y:2019:i:c:s1062940818306090

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.100994

Access Statistics for this article

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance is currently edited by Hamid Beladi

More articles in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().