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Dependent relationships between Chinese commodity markets and the international financial market: Evidence from quantile time-frequency analysis

Huiming Zhu, Liang Meng, Yajing Ge and Liya Hau

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020, vol. 54, issue C

Abstract: In this article, the quantile time–frequency method is utilized to study the dependence of Chinese commodities on the international financial market. The impacts of risk management and diversification benefits of different portfolios are examined by calculating the reduction in downside risk. Moreover, we estimate and compare Sharpe Ratios (SRs) and Generalized Sharpe Ratios (GSRs) based on the frequencies of the investigated portfolios. Our empirical results reveal a strong asymmetric response from Chinese commodity markets. Specifically, we find that gold is a safe-haven asset, and due to negative correlations found at lower quantiles in medium and long term, an increase in the USD index damages bull commodity markets but boosts bear conditions under long-term investments, and negative (positive) tail correlations with interest rates (IRs) in bull (bear) markets are observed. It is proven that WTI can decrease short-run risks while USD and GOLD are more efficient in the diversification of downside risk. Adding international commodities may not improve the returns of Chinese commodities at given risk levels in the short and medium term through SRs and GSRs. In brief, investors should consider these dependence structures and modes of risk management in terms of time and frequency.

Keywords: Dependence; Commodity market; International financial market; Quantile regression; Wavelet analysis; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101256

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