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Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics

Chi-Chuan Lee, Chien-Chiang Lee () and Yong-Yi Li

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021, vol. 55, issue C

Abstract: This research explores the causal relation among oil price, geopolitical risks, and green bond index in the United States from December 2013 to January 2019. Unlike the conventional linear model specification used in earlier works, we evaluate causal relations based on Granger-causality in quantile analysis. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional Granger-causality from geopolitical risk to oil price at the extreme quantiles. We also observe a significant bi-directional causality from oil price to green bond index for the lower quantiles. Findings also reveal causality from geopolitical risk to green bond index in the lower quantiles of the distribution. Therefore, knowledge of these causal relationships can help policy makers to evaluate and implement effective policies to prevent sudden and substantial oil price shocks and geopolitical risk.

Keywords: Oil price shock; Green bonds, Geopolitical risks; Green finance; Granger-causality in quantiles analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G10 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820301972

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101309

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