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The nonlinear effect of oil price shocks on financial stress: Evidence from China

Renren Liu, Jianzhong Chen and Fenghua Wen

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021, vol. 55, issue C

Abstract: This paper examines the nonlinear effects of different types of oil price shocks on China’s financial stress index (FSI). For this purpose, we use newly proposed framework by Ready (2018) to decompose oil prices into supply, demand and risk shocks. Then, we use a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model to investigate the nonlinear effects of these oil price shocks on China’s FSI. The empirical results show that the effects of three oil price shocks are nonlinear under different regimes. In particular, oil supply shocks mainly have a significantly positive effect on China’s FSI in the low-volatility state; demand shocks have negative effects on China’s FSI in different regimes, but this effect is larger in the low-volatility state; the effect of risk shocks on China’s FSI is the opposite, and it is positive in the high-volatility state but negative in the low-volatility state.

Keywords: China’s financial stress index; Markov regime-switching model; Nonlinear effect; Oil price shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101317

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