Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic

David Okorie and Boqiang Lin ()

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021, vol. 57, issue C

Abstract: Since the level of markets’ information efficiency is key to profiteering by strategic players, Shocks; such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can play a role in the nature of markets’ information efficiency. The martingale difference and conditional heteroscedasticity tests are used to evaluate the Adaptive form of market efficiency for four (4) major stock market indexes in the top four affected economies during the COVID-19 pandemic (USA, Brazil, India, and Russia). Generally, based on the martingale difference spectral test, there is no evidence of a substantial change in the levels of market efficiency for the US and Brazilian stock markets in the short, medium, and long term. However, in the long term, the Indian stock markets became more information inefficient after the coronavirus outbreak while the Russian stock markets become more information efficient. Intuitively, these affect the forecastability and predictability of these markets’ prices and/or returns. Thereby, informing the strategic and trading actions of stock investors (including arbitrageurs) towards profit optimization, portfolio asset selection, portfolio asset adjustment, etc. Similar policy implications are further discussed.

Keywords: Martingale; Heteroscedasticity; Market efficiency hypothesis; Hypothesis testing; COVID-19 pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 G01 G10 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821000322

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101397

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