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Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China

Zhifeng Dai and Yongxin Peng

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2022, vol. 62, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the volatility spillover effect among the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index, stock markets, gold and oil by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Three main results are obtained. Firstly, the optional consumption, industry, public utility and financial sectors are systemically important during the sample period. Secondly, among the four policy uncertainties, the uncertainty of fiscal policy and trade policy contributes more to the spillover effect, while the uncertainty of monetary policy and exchange rate policy contributes less to the spillover effect. Thirdly, during COVID-19, oil spillovers from other sources dropped rapidly to a very low point, it also had a significant impact on the net volatility spillover of the stock market. This paper can provide policy implication for decision-makers and reasonable risk aversion methods for investors.

Keywords: Volatility spillover; Economic policy uncertainty; Stock market sector; TVP-VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:62:y:2022:i:c:s1062940822000936

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101745

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