 Can ignorance about the interest rate and macroeconomic surprises affect the stock market return? Evidence from a large emerging economyHelder de Mendonça () and Raime Rolando Rodríguez Díaz The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2023, vol. 64, issue C Abstract: This paper analyzes whether the “ignorance” of private agents regarding the monetary policy interest rate and macroeconomic surprises affects the return in the stock exchange in a large emerging economy. Based on the Brazilian economy from January 2005 to September 2021, we build a measure of “ignorance” from the signal-to-noise ratio of the monetary policy interest rate and evaluate its effect on the stock market return. Furthermore, we analyze whether the “surprises” from macroeconomic variables can affect the stock market return. The findings indicate that increases in the “ignorance” of private agents regarding the monetary policy interest rate have a negative and statistically significant effect on the stock exchange return. Moreover, macroeconomic “surprises” have effects on stock market return. Keywords: Interest rate; Stock market; Monetary policy; Information; Macroeconomic surprises (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s1062940822002030 DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101868 Access Statistics for this article The North American Journal of Economics and Finance is currently edited by Hamid Beladi More articles in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance from Elsevier |
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