 Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?Bangzhu Zhu, Kefan Wang, Julien Chevallier, Ping Wang and Yi-Ming Wei Ecological Economics, 2015, vol. 119, issue C, 209-216 Abstract: In 2009, the Chinese government announced its carbon intensity target for 2020. Can China achieve this carbon intensity while sustaining economic growth? To address this essential issue, the contributions of this study lie in three aspects. First, we quantitatively capture the relationship between China's economic growth and energy consumption using the cointegration theory, and predict China's energy consumption by 2020 according to different economic growth targets. Second, we forecast China's energy structure in 2020 using compositional data and ARIMA models under different scenarios. Third, we deduce China's CO2 emission and carbon intensity in 2020. Furthermore, we investigate whether (or not) China can realize the carbon intensity target in premise of ensuring economic growth, and evaluate the contribution of the energy structure's adjustment to meeting this target. Finally, we put forward some relevant policy implications for achieving China's carbon intensity target. Keywords: China; Carbon intensity; Economic growth; Energy structure adjustment; Contribution evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:119:y:2015:i:c:p:209-216 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.015 Access Statistics for this article Ecological Economics is currently edited by C. J. Cleveland More articles in Ecological Economics from Elsevier |
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