German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables

Jens Krüger () and Julian Hoss

Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 114, issue 3, 284-287

Abstract: We examine the efficiency of German forecasts for output growth and inflation allowing for an asymmetric loss function of the forecasters. We find the loss of output growth forecasts to be approximately symmetric while there is an asymmetry in the loss of the inflation forecasts. The information of financial variables seems to be adequately incorporated into the output forecasts but to a lesser extent into the inflation forecasts.

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasting; Asymmetric loss; Financial markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E37 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:114:y:2012:i:3:p:284-287

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.005

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