Has US inflation really become harder to forecast?

Markku Lanne and Jani Luoto

Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 115, issue 3, 383-386

Abstract: Since the mid-1980s, Phillips curve forecasts of US inflation have been inferior to those of a conventional causal autoregression. However, little change in forecast accuracy is detected against the benchmark of a noncausal autoregression, more accurately characterizing US inflation dynamics.

Keywords: Inflation forecast; Noncausal time series; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511006112
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Has U.S. Inflation Really Become Harder to Forecast? (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:383-386

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.088

Access Statistics for this article

Economics Letters is currently edited by Economics Letters Editorial Office

More articles in Economics Letters from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().