Sluggish US employment recovery after the Great Recession: Cyclical or structural factors?

Marcella Lucchetta () and Antonio Paradiso ()

Economics Letters, 2014, vol. 123, issue 2, 109-112

Abstract: This paper aims at investigating the causes of the observed departure of employment path from the GDP movements occurred in US in the late of 2008 onwards. Starting from a production function approach, and assuming that the TFP growth is explained by variables linked to the business cycle, we are able to formulate an extended version of Okun’s law based on cyclical factors. Out-of-sample forecasting for the period 2008 onward shows that predicted US employment is on average 1.7% above the observed one, meaning that this gap cannot be attributed to identified cyclical factors.

Keywords: Okun’s law; Employment recovery; Cointegration; Structural and cyclical factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C40 E32 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176514000469
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:123:y:2014:i:2:p:109-112

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.01.032

Access Statistics for this article

Economics Letters is currently edited by Economics Letters Editorial Office

More articles in Economics Letters from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().