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Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Nathan Goldstein and Ben-Zion Zilberfarb

Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 150, issue C, 86-90

Abstract: We examine the seasonal pattern in expectations, using a unique Israeli survey of quarterly inflation forecasts. Rationality is rejected with respect to (trivial) information about calendar quarter. Seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment.

Keywords: Rational expectations; Survey forecasts; Seasonality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 E27 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:150:y:2017:i:c:p:86-90