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Finite sample performance of a long run variance estimator based on exactly (almost) unbiased autocovariance estimators

Jingjing Yang and Timothy Vogelsang ()

Economics Letters, 2018, vol. 165, issue C, 21-27

Abstract: This paper proposes a bias reduced long run variance (LRV) estimator of a univariate time series with unknown mean that addresses well known finite sample bias problems. The LRV estimator is based on the (almost) exactly unbiased autocovariance estimator proposed by Vogelsang and Yang (2016). Whereas using fixed-b critical values is known to correct downward bias in LRV estimates generated by demeaning the data, the approach we take also corrects the classic Parzen bias that is not captured by the fixed-b approach. When applied to the tests of the null hypothesis of the mean in a simple location model, a simulation study shows that the proposed LRV estimator leads to tests with less over-rejections while maintaining power at least as high and often higher as the standard robust t test based on fixed-b critical values. These simulations suggest further theoretical analysis of the bias reduction approach is warranted.

Keywords: Long run variance; HAC estimator; Bias correction; Fixed-b asymptotics; Hypothesis testing; Parzen bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C13 C14 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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