Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States

Didem Tüzemen

Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 175, issue C, 97-100

Abstract: I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, gender, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994–2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and was 4.5% at the end of 2017. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4% by the end of 2022.

Keywords: Natural rate of unemployment; Job polarization; Labor demand; Skills; Aging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 J21 J23 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:97-100

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.011

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