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Deciphering the causes for the post-1990 slow output recoveries

Wen Zhang

Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 176, issue C, 28-34

Abstract: This paper explores the causes for the slow output recoveries in the U.S. since 1990, via estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatilities. The model incorporates routine employment as a share of total employment and two financial variables, to simultaneously evaluate the roles of labor-market-related and credit-related factors in determining output dynamics. Based on the estimated model, the counterfactual experiments highlight the crucial roles of routine biased technological changes and structural changes that shift investment dynamics in explaining post-1990 slow output recoveries.

Keywords: Time-varying parameter VAR; Slow recoveries; Routine biased technological shock; Structural changes; Financial shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C31 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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