Secular stagnation? Is there statistical evidence of an unprecedented, systematic decline in growth?

Marlon Fritz, Thomas Gries and Yuanhua Feng

Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 181, issue C, 47-50

Abstract: So far it is difficult to establish firm evidence that the recent decline in growth is indeed systematic, unprecedented, and significant. In order to provide more statistical evidence of a decline in economic growth, we use a data-driven nonparametric estimation approach which improves boundary estimators, using an extended iterative plug-in (IPI) algorithm to determine the bandwidth endogenously. We identify continuously Moving Trends (MT) with a length of 18 years for US GDP. Two introduced tests demonstrate a persistent decline in US trends and growth rates since the dot.com bubble. Hence, the 2008 financial crisis merely revealed that GDP, labor, and multi-factor productivity trends were already stagnating.

Keywords: Nonparametric methods; Secular stagnation; Empirical growth trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 O40 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:47-50

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.04.021

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