EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence

Paul Beaudry and Franck Portier ()

Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 183, issue C, -

Abstract: It is commonly accepted that economic expansions do not exhibit duration dependence, that is, the probability of an expansion terminating in the near future is thought to be independent of the length of the expansion. When looking at the probability of entering a recession within a year (or 2 years), we find considerable evidence of economically significant duration dependence. This pattern suggests that certain types of macroeconomic vulnerabilities may be accumulating as the expansion ages causing the arrival of a recession to become more likely.

Keywords: Recessions; Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176519302484
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Duration Dependence in US Expansions: A re-examination of the evidence (2019) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:183:y:2019:i:c:15

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008

Access Statistics for this article

Economics Letters is currently edited by Economics Letters Editorial Office

More articles in Economics Letters from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:183:y:2019:i:c:15