Do changes in terms of trade impact election outcomes?

Luis V.M. Freitas, Naercio Menezes-Filho and Bruno Komatsu

Economics Letters, 2020, vol. 193, issue C

Abstract: We investigate whether luck is a relevant factor in election outcomes by analyzing how a country’s change in terms of trade close to the election impacts the probability of reelection of the incumbent party. We draw from economic and political data on countries around the world and find that changes in the terms of trade one year before the election affect the reelection probability. Import prices are the main drivers of the result and elections in non-OECD countries are the most affected by terms of trade.

Keywords: Terms of trade; Reelection; Voter rationality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520301932

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109291

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