Posterior probabilities: Dominance and optimism

Sergiu Hart and Yosef Rinott

Economics Letters, 2020, vol. 194, issue C

Abstract: The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true state. This generalizes to notions of “optimism” about posterior probabilities.

Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism (2022)
Working Paper: Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:194:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520302263

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109352

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