Posterior probabilities: Dominance and optimism
Sergiu Hart () and
Economics Letters, 2020, vol. 194, issue C
The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true state. This generalizes to notions of “optimism” about posterior probabilities.
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Working Paper: Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:194:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520302263
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