Rare disaster concerns and economic fluctuations

Yijun Hao, Hao Su and Xiaoneng Zhu

Economics Letters, 2020, vol. 195, issue C

Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence that disaster risk concerns predict real economic fluctuations. We construct a forward-looking disaster concerns measure using Manela and Moreira (2017) indicators. Consistent with theories on rare disaster risks and macro-economy, this measure forecasts future economic activities.

Keywords: Disaster risk; Predictability; Economic forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 E3 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520302810

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109454

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