Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Sungjun Huh and Insu Kim

Economics Letters, 2020, vol. 196, issue C

Abstract: This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.

Keywords: SPF; GDP growth forecast; Asymmetric forecast revision; Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:196:y:2020:i:c:s016517652030327x

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109541

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