EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Narrative fragmentation and the business cycle

Christoph Bertsch (), Isaiah Hull () and Xin Zhang

Economics Letters, 2021, vol. 201, issue C

Abstract: According to Shiller (2017), economic and financial narratives often emerge as a consequence of their virality, rather than their veracity, and constitute an important, but understudied driver of aggregate fluctuations. Using a unique dataset of newspaper articles over the 1950–2019 period and state-of-the-art methods from natural language processing, we characterize the properties of business cycle narratives. Our main finding is that narratives tend to consolidate around a dominant explanation during expansions and fragment into competing explanations during contractions. We also show that the existence of past reference events is strongly associated with increased narrative consolidation.

Keywords: Natural language processing; Machine learning; Narrative economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 D84 E32 E7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176521000604
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:201:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521000604

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109783

Access Statistics for this article

Economics Letters is currently edited by Economics Letters Editorial Office

More articles in Economics Letters from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2021-12-18
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:201:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521000604