The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition

Thomas Crossley (), Yifan Gong, Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd Stinebrickner

Economics Letters, 2022, vol. 210, issue C

Abstract: We propose a novel but intuitive measure of the average ex post accuracy of a group of economic agents’ beliefs, and show how a decomposition of that measure captures different sources of inaccuracy: failure of rational expectations, subjective uncertainty, and aggregate shocks.

Keywords: Probabilistic expectations data; Uncertainty; Income expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:210:y:2022:i:c:s0165176521004316

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110160

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