Revisiting vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Identifying the role of financial conditions in the distribution

Tibor Szendrei and Katalin Varga

Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 223, issue C

Abstract: Growth-at-Risk modelling has been a cornerstone for research and policymaking recently as a way to model tail risk in the macroeconomy. However, the majority of the research has been almost exclusively been done on US data. The aim of this paper is to utilise a variable selection framework to identify which variables are key in capturing the different parts of the GDP distribution for the Euro Area. Importantly this paper uses a methodology that can handle variable selection task in small sample settings.

Keywords: Growth-at-risk; Quantile regression; LASSO; Non-crossing constraints; Downside risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:223:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523000150

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.110990

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