Do individuals expect the Phillips curve? Evidence from the European Consumer Expectations Survey

Gerda Kirpson and Karsten Staehr ()

Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 234, issue C

Abstract: Are the expectations of individuals in Europe consistent with the Phillips curve? To investigate we run panel data estimations on micro data from the European Consumer Expectations Survey. The estimations reveal a positive relationship between expected inflation and economic slack. This lack of consistency with the Phillips curve holds even when proxies for supply shocks are included.

Keywords: Expectations; Inflation; Phillips curve; Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0165176523004561

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111430

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