Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts

Yongchen Zhao

Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 234, issue C

Abstract: We examine measures of uncertainty of household inflation expectations derived from matched point and density forecasts that are “reconciled”, where the mean (or the median) of the densities are matched to the point forecasts using exponential tilting.

Keywords: Uncertainty measurement; Exponential tilting; Household survey; Consumer sentiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C83 D12 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0165176523005128

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111486

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