The impact of heterogeneous consumption and productivity expectations on factor risk premia

Christian Bauer, Paul Symann and Dennis Umlandt

Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 247, issue C

Abstract: Recent theoretical asset pricing models with heterogeneous agents and recursive utility imply that disagreement in macroeconomic expectations influences financial risk premia. This paper provides empirical support for this hypothesis in a dynamic version of the Fama–French 5 factor model, where risk premia are determined by the cross-sectional variance of professional forecasts. Furthermore, we find that disagreement about future consumption affects stock market returns in general, while disagreement about productivity affects returns especially for stocks with small market capitalization and weak operating profitability.

Keywords: Heterogeneous expectations; Long-run risk; Dynamic asset pricing; Time-varying risk premia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0165176524006037

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112119

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