Forecasting retail fuel prices with spatial interdependencies

Adam Clements and Jesús Otero

Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 247, issue C

Abstract: This paper forecasts station-level retail fuel prices using econometric methods, incorporating spatial interdependencies. Error correction models with cross-sectional dependence outperform autoregressive models with wholesale prices or spatial effects, demonstrating the benefits of spatial interdependencies in terms of improved forecasting performance.

Keywords: Forecasting; Petrol price; Spatial; Cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0165176524006128

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112128

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