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The balance of probabilities vs. the balance of harms in merger control

Yossi Spiegel

Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 247, issue C

Abstract: I examine the difference between the balance of probabilities and the balance of harms standards in merger control. I show that both standards take into account the entire distribution of post-merger outcomes, but the former focuses on the median outcome whereas the latter focuses on the mean outcome. Consequently, a shift from a balance of probabilities to a balance of harms standard broadens the set of mergers that are blocked if the distribution of post-merger outcomes is skewed to the left and conversely if it is skewed to the right.

Keywords: Merger control; Balance of probabilities; Balance of harms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D43 L41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525000047

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112167

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