Regime dependence in the oil-stock market relationship: The role of oil price uncertainty

Reinhold Heinlein and Scott Mahadeo

Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 251, issue C

Abstract: We compare the interaction between the crude oil and US stock markets in regimes where oil price uncertainty is high versus low, using a smooth transition vector autoregressive model. Our results show that supply- and demand-side shocks from the oil market, as well as stock market shocks, tend to have greater effect sizes in the lower oil price uncertainty regime. These asymmetric findings are consistent with the premise that shocks occurring in a relatively calmer environment are inclined to surprise market participants more, thereby eliciting amplified responses, than during an environment where oil price uncertainty is anticipated to be higher.

Keywords: Oil price uncertainty; Oil shocks; Structural smooth transition VAR; Stock returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G12 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:251:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525001284

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112291

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