Geopolitical risk and euro area bank CDS spreads and stock prices: Evidence from a new index

Daniel Dieckelmann, Chloe Larkou, Peter McQuade, Cosimo Pancaro and Denise Rößler

Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 254, issue C

Abstract: We construct a new bank-level indicator of geopolitical risk for euro area banks by combining the Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) country-level geopolitical risk indexes and ECB supervisory data on the asset exposures of individual banks across countries. Using this new index as the key independent variable, we then apply panel local projections to investigate the impact of geopolitical risk on banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads and stock prices. We find that a one standard deviation increase in the exposure-weighted bank-level geopolitical risk index is significantly associated with an increase in CDS spreads of 34 basis points and a decline in stock prices of around 6%. Furthermore, the responses of these variables are relatively short-lived.

Keywords: Banks; Financial markets; Geopolitical risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525002988

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112461

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