Unemployment dynamics in the United Kingdom: a quarter-millennium perspective

Ali Yucel and Saban Nazlioglu

Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 254, issue C

Abstract: This letter examines the persistence of unemployment in the United Kingdom (UK) using over a quarter of a millennium of data, spanning from 1760 to 2023. The results from the quantile unit root approach—accounting for non-normal distributions, structural changes, and non-linearity—reveal asymmetric unemployment dynamics. Shocks to unemployment appear transitory in low-unemployment regimes but are persistent in high-unemployment regimes. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for asymmetries in labor market adjustments.

Keywords: Unemployment; Hysteresis; Non-normal distributions; Smooth breaks; Non-linearity; Quantile unit root (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525003052

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112468

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