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Forecasting the ECB's main refinancing rate. A field experiment

Michael Berlemann ()

Economics Letters, 2008, vol. 99, issue 2, 379-383

Abstract: When no appropriate markets to derive expectations on economic variables are available surveying methods are often employed. However, surveys suffer from the problem of how to aggregate individual expectations in a reasonable manner. We show at the example of a market on the ECB's main refinancing rate that experimental markets aggregate information quite efficiently and thus are a useful tool in this respect.

Date: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:2:p:379-383