Ecological Modelling

2007 - 2026

Current editor(s): Brian D. Fath

From Elsevier
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2026, volume 512, articles C

Modeling the loss of climate protection from spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) under changing conditions in Alaska’s forests

Nancy Fresco, Kyle Redilla, Jessie Moan, Sydney Mullen, Charles Parr and Craig Stephenson

Gorge floodplain landscape dynamics and sustainability: Insights from human-nature interactions

Jin Zhang, Wen Wen, Jieao Shen, Chang Li and Haimeng Liu

Ecological and economic evaluation of reservoir-based water transfer using system dynamics

Zeyu Zhang, Jia Li, Dongya Zhang, Hongsen You, Yi Peng, Yong Li, Peiying Tan, Lingling Ni and Yun Lu

Enhancing urban CFD simulations with porous media parameters for representative street trees

Junghyeon Ahn and Junsuk Kang

Construction and optimization of ecological network in karst regions under rocky desertification disturbance: A case study of Qujing City, China

Heng Gai, Bing Wu, Yuanxiang Wu and Zhihui Ren

Modeling canopy-forming vs. turfing algae competition via a space-implicit model with border dynamics

D. Collini, L. Barletti, F. Bulleri, S. Dalmazzone, V. Frontuto, L. Tamburello, F. Sarnari and M. Materassi

Corrigendum to ‘A decade of mizer: A systematic review of advancements and applications of size spectrum modeling in aquatic ecosystems’ [Ecological Modelling, Volume 508, September 2025, 111241]

M. Grazia Pennino, D.J. Nachón, D. Bamio, M. Cousido-Rocha, G. Delius, F. Izquierdo, A. Paz, E. Abad, M.A. Torres, I. González Herraiz, M.P. Sampedro, I.M. Rabanal, F. Velasco, P. Verisimo, Y. Vila and S. Cerviño

A decade of mizer: a systematic review of advancements and applications of size spectrum modeling in aquatic ecosystems

M. Grazia Pennino, D.J. Nachón, D. Bamio, M. Cousido-Rocha, G. Delius, F. Izquierdo, A. Paz, E. Abad, M.A. Torres, I. González Herraiz, M.P. Sampedro, I.M. Rabanal, F. Velasco, P. Verisimo, Y. Vila and S. Cerviño

Dynamic temperature sensitivity improves simulated ecosystem respiration in a coupled land-atmosphere model

Tuanhui Wang, Yue Zhang, Ping Jiang and Longhui Li

Stranding data can significantly bias marine mammal habitat suitability models

A.C.o Meirelles, I.C. Normande, M.D.O. Alves, K.F. Choi, V.L. Carvalho, J.C.G. Borges and A.W. Trites

On scale and complexity in model design for marine reserve planning with Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and Philippines case studies

Stuart Kininmonth and Carl Steinitz

A comprehensive review of approaches, challenges, and future directions for advancing nitrous oxide emission modeling

Cong Wang and Thorsten Ruf

Contrasting vegetation responses to drought indicated by model simulations

Junping Wang, Baolin Xue, Guoqiang Wang and Qingqing Fang

Hydrological responses to changes in the proportion of green-grey-blue infrastructures following urban expansion

Pengfei Wang, Junguo Liu, Shuyu Zhang, Shuman Liu and Soon Keat Tan

Evaluating biological realism in ecological modelling: application of a novel framework to compare mechanistic and process-based earthworm and wild pollinator population models

Harriet M. Gold, Jacqueline A. Hannam, Simon G. Potts, Claire Brittain, Nika Galic and Alice S.A. Johnston

A mechanistic mangrove ecosystem model for evaluating carbon absorption, fixation, and storage functions across daily to seasonal timescales

Wataru Shimura, Akihito Ryogoku, Hisashi Shibuki and Akio Sohma

Modelling woody carbon dynamics in tropical dry forests: A case study of the Dry Chaco Region

Iván Daniel Filip, Pablo Luis Peri, Pedro Fernández, Dante Loto, Sebastián Miguel Kees, Natalia Banegas, José Nasca, Mónica Sacido, Claudia Faverin and Ronaldo Vibart

A GIS-based methodology to identify priority areas for land use regulations - Case study of Kozhikode

Nishan Nazer, Bimal P and Chithra K

Using a coupled model and GIS tool in assessing the effect on primary production after nutrient reduction to a Danish estuary

Mikkel Keller Lees, Kadri Kuusemäe, Anders C. Erichsen, Mogens R. Flindt and Paula Canal-Vergés

Assessing cattle grazing impact on biomass and soil carbon pools in an Australian semi-arid woodland

Hari Krishna Laudari, Liubov Volkova, Stephen H Roxburgh and Christopher J Weston

Exploring future ecosystem service trade-off and key driving factors in the ecologically fragile region, northern China

Xueping Chen, Xueyong Zhao, Yanming Zhao, Xiaowen Zhu, Liya Bai and Hongmei Yu

Hybrid biogeography-based optimization and Mamdani fuzzy modelling for physical habitat suitability modelling under limited data conditions

Mahdi Sedighkia and Bithin Datta

Advancing crop growth modeling: Challenges, model integration, and pathways for improved decision support

Adam Shaaban Mgana, Aidi Huo, Yilu Zhao, Padam Raj Joshi and Abderrahim Firaouni

Pathways to sustainability or collapse in inland small-scale aquaculture systems: insights from a social–ecological systems model

Sonja Radosavljevic, Francesca Acotto, Quanli Wang, Jie Su and Alexandros Gasparatos

The effects of ecological interactions and distinct conjugation rates on the invasion of a conjugative plasmid in bacterial communities

Jesse B. Alderliesten, Mark P. Zwart, J.Arjan G.M. de Visser, Arjan Stegeman and Egil A.J. Fischer

Parasitoid-led control in seasonal multitrophic systems: Impulsive strategies under hyperparasitoid disruption

Mona Zevika, S. Khoirul Himmi, Anita Triska and Juni Wijayanti Puspita

Persistence of small populations under seasonal resource fluctuations

Viviane M. Oliveira, Fernando Fagundes Ferreira, Ediline L.F. Nguessap and Paulo R.A. Campos

A machine learning-derived metamodel of BEEHAVE predicts how honey yield depends on weather and region across Germany

Gokul Govind, Martin Lange, Volker Grimm, Karin Frank and Jürgen Groeneveld

2026, volume 511, articles C

A decision support system linking forest succession, habitat suitability and population dynamics of woodland caribou in the boreal forest of northern Ontario, Canada

Guy R. Larocque, Arthur R. Rodgers, F.Wayne Bell, Rebecca Viejou and Thomas Schiks

Analysis of cyclic population dynamics of snow crab in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence using a stage-structured discrete-time population model

S. Léger, J. Mazerolle, B. Sainte-Marie and T. Surette

Using spatially explicit individual-based modelling to evaluate the ecological feasibility of big cat reintroduction: the example of the Arabian leopard

Luciano Atzeni, Samuel A. Cushman, Amiyaal Ilany, Eli Geffen and David W. Macdonald

Spatial and physiological detail in crown representation matters when simulating tree growth

Jorad de Vries, Eva Meijers, Marleen A.E Vos and Frank J. Sterck

A game-theoretic approach to community-based wildlife management in abandoned rural areas

José Luis Charro, Humza Khan, Ramón Perea and Fernando Charro

Changes in seasonality and dynamics of the rodent-mustelid system

Julia Mikhailova, Clemens Breuß, Nikolas O. Aksamit and Nigel Yoccoz

Modeling desert locust population dynamics: A climate driven approach using machine learning

Dejen K. Mamo, Mathew N. Kinyanjui and Nourridine Siewe

Towards modeling soil erosion in a perennial ground cover (PGC) system

Oluwatuyi S. Olowoyeye and Amy L. Kaleita

Does meter-scale snow data matter for modeling alpine plant distribution? A comparison of four data sources at two resolutions

Andreas Kollert, Kryštof Chytrý, Norbert Helm, Karl Hülber, Dietmar Moser, Johannes Wessely, Stef Lhermitte, Simon Gascoin, Andreas Mayr, Patrick Saccone, Johannes Hausharter, Michael Warscher, Ulrich Strasser, Stefan Dullinger and Martin Rutzinger

Unifying occupancy-detection and local frequency scaling (Frescalo) models

Oliver L. Pescott

Application of explainable machine learning in the study of urban ecological economic resilience

Xiaofeng Ran, Bowen Zhang, Rui Ding, Shuyue Jiang, Jiarui Yuan, Yaoyao Zheng and Changpeng Yang

Howard T. Odum’s contribution to Marxian ecological thought

Raffaele Guarino and Enrique Muñoz-Ulecia

Diversity and uniformity: An entropy-based diagnosis of sectoral roles in China’s embodied carbon flow network

Zhongjie Zhang and Lei Shi

Partial consistency of net primary productivity and water-carbon use efficiency in response to climate change among three plantations

Chongfan Guan, ShouJia Sun, Jinsong Zhang, Xiaochuang Hu, Zijing Li, Jinfeng Cai and Ping Meng

Study on the relationship between intensive land use and ecosystem service value in Gansu Province

Jiaojiao Lei, Xuelu Liu, Lina Wang, Xiaodan Li, Jin Ma, Lide Zhang and Haiyu Yang

Research on the sustainable development of agricultural ecosystems based on the population and ecological interaction network model

Zhenfen Dong, Tengteng Xu, Yuanyu Yang, Jue Wang, Tongtong Jiang and Yuheng Men

Household scale Wolbachia release strategies for effective dengue control

Abby Barlow and Ben Adams

Evaluating ecological connectivity of key benthic habitats in a dynamic, complex archipelago

Elina Miettunen, Louise Forsblom and Elina A. Virtanen

Temperature- and host-driven model of Phlebotomus papatasi outbreak potential under climate change in Sudan

Komi Mensah Agboka, Souleymane Diallo, Iman Brema Hassaballa, Quinto Juma Meltus, Khalid Ahmed, Chrysantus M. Tanga, Tobias Landmann and Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman

Modelling the winter Sargassum blooms in the Yellow Sea: considering wind, current and growth

Ke Sun, Shuxiang Ruan, Xiaowen Zhang, Dong Xu, Xiao Fan, Yitao Wang, Wei Wang, Pengyan Zhang, Lepu Wang and Naihao Ye

2025, volume 510, articles C

Evaluating responses to epidemics of Infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus in farmed tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)

Pedro H. de Oliveira Viadanna and Jesse Brunner

Integrating marine protected areas and spatial fisheries restrictions in ecosystem models of the Aegean Sea

Ioannis Keramidas, Donna Dimarchopoulou, Nikolaos Kokkos, Tushith Islam, Ghassen Halouani, Georgios Sylaios and Athanassios C. Tsikliras

Using DNDC models with two assimilation algorithms to simulate N2O emissions from a farmland after biochar added

Can Chen, Kexin Wang and Hongxia Zhu

A long-term scenario analysis of snow damage risk: effects of reduced stand density management

Victor F. Strîmbu, Morgane Merlin, Svein Solberg and Tron Eid

Snow leopard connectivity through trans-boundary areas surrounding the Dzungarian Basin in Kazakhstan

Alexey Grachev, Yuriy Grachev, Maxim Bespalov, Saltore Saparbayev, Yerlik Baydavletov, Dina Konysbayeva, Philip Riordan and Luciano Atzeni

Empirical and mechanistic models predict pinyon ips (Ips confusus) phenology

E.M. Hansen, J.A. Powell, A. Graves, S. Souder, J.C. Vandygriff, M. Gaylord, J. McMillin and B.J. Bentz

Modeling carbonyl sulfide and carbon dioxide fluxes in a northern boreal coniferous forest using memory-based deep learning

Shuai Liu, Wei He, Peipei Xu, Mengyao Zhao, Chengcheng Huang and Ngoc Tu Nguyen

Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit

Maria C.A. Leite, Folashade B. Agusto, Benito Chen-Charpentier, Frank Owusu-Ansah and Owusu Domfeh

Integrating nitrogen and carbon cycling into LANDIS-II/PnET-Succession to improve forest landscape modeling: methods and sensitivity analyses

Zaixing Zhou, Eric J. Gustafson, Scott V. Ollinger, Andrew P. Ouimette, Brian R. Miranda, Matthew J. Duveneck, Jane R. Foster, Brian R. Sturtevant, Dustin R. Bronson and Danelle Laflower

Modeling fish swimming trajectories in a sudden expansion flow based on eulerian lagrangian agent method (ELAM): A case study of red crucian carp

Dongjin Gao, Xin Zhu, Minghai Huang, Siying Wang and Hui Guo

From theory to application: measuring development disparities in Mozambique through an Odum-inspired emergy framework

Estêvão Salvador Langa, Biagio F. Giannetti, Fábio Sevegnani, Feni Agostinho and Cecília M.V.B. Almeida

Modelling long-term soil organic carbon dynamics of the typical salt marsh wetlands with the DNDC model: a case study from Yancheng wetland, China

Fang Tang, Xiaobo Bian, Jingjing Li, Shengzhi Liu, Huan Zhang and Min Xu

A state-space model to quantify density dependence, demographic heterogeneity, and spatial synchrony in Grande Ronde Basin Chinook salmon populations

Benjamin A. Staton, Polly P. Gibson, Martin Liermann, Casey Justice, Matthew J. Kaylor, Rishi Sharma and Seth M. White

Pushing and pulling an algal bloom: Physical controls of diel variability in nearshore phytoplankton biomass

Medea Zanoli, Gotzon Basterretxea and Idan Tuval

Multi-scenario spatial optimization for future development in arid and semi-arid regions based on early warning of ecological risk

Yuxia Hu, Jirui Gong, Siqi Zhang, Weiyuan Zhang, Xuede Dong, Guisen Yang, Chenyi Yan, Ruijing Wang, Shangpeng Zhang and Tong Wang

Spatiotemporal patterns of gross primary productivity and the response to climate variability in the subtropical ecosystem of Eastern China

Ruixueer Wu, Zhiyong Cui, Binghao Jia, Hao Sun, Longhuan Wang, Yan Yu and Linzi Jiang

Scenario-driven modeling of mountain ecosystems: land use-carbon dynamics simulation based on the coupled SD-FLUS-InVEST framework

Qin Yaowei, Yan Yu, Dong Jiaqi, Zhao Zhenyu, Li Shuangjiang, Cao Jiansheng and Xiao Jieying

The relationship between pyrodiversity and biodiversity

Anthony E. Fernando and Michael A. McCarthy

Systems modeling for agroecology and land restoration

Luigi Conte, Federico Surra, Sebastiano Favarin, Vito Comar and Francesco Gonella

Modeling and analysis of maize agroecosystem dynamics with stresses

Zisen Peng, Zhengyang Xiao, Hao Xu, Yuhang Yan, Wenqian Zhu, Yanghui Wu, Lifei Zheng and Yongsheng Wei

Individual behaviour and temperature: simulation of an insect parasitoid population

Julie Augustin, Jacques Brodeur, Guy Boivin and Gaétan Bourgeois

Revisiting the dynamic simulation model of land-use changes in the Sudano-sahelian countries of Africa (SALU): An open-access application to Senegal

Anem Dupré, Paul-Alain Raynal, Isabelle Gounand and Caroline Pierre

Explorers vs. followers: A behavioural approach to spatial bias correction in species distribution modelling

Emy Guilbault, Panu Somervuo and Ian Renner

Environmental quality and its impact on selective fishing — A computational perspective

S.G.F. Martins, P.S. Pompeu, S.M. de Souza and S.A.B. Salgado

Environmental controls on the development of early life stages of European smelt in the Elbe estuary

David Drewes, Corinna Schrum, Johannes Pein, Déborah Benkort and Ute Daewel

Modeling the growth dynamics of Phragmites australis with flooding stress in the Middle Yangtze River

Junqiang Xia, Xi Shi, Meirong Zhou, Shengqi Liu and Shanshan Deng

Driving wildfire spread prediction by multi-source real-time observations

Chuanying Lin, Yihong Shi, Zheng Wang, Mengxia Zha, Xingdong Li and Jie Ji

Phosphorus dynamics in water and sediments in a large multi-use reservoir under extreme volume variation

Iran Eduardo Lima Neto

Decomposition of Whittaker’s gamma diversity: a novel way combining entropies and divergences

Ivano Vascotto and Davide Agnetta

A spatiotemporal SEIR model for predicting wheat stripe and leaf rusts epidemics

Mustapha El Jarroudi, Hasan Karjoun, Riane Hajjami, Louis Kouadio and Moussa El Jarroudi

A systematic review of urban ecological resilience: Emerging frontiers in process-oriented metabolic research

Yining Gao, Yan Zhang and Dongxiao Xu

Exploring household resilience indicators in the context of urban-rural linked water systems and post-disaster scenarios in Kathmandu valley

Namita Poudel and Rajib Shaw

A system dynamics model to assess the commercial viability of hydroponics product service system

Pallavi Paturu and Sudhir Varadarajan

Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of net primary productivity in Asian terrestrial ecosystems

Meng Li, Liang Liang, Ziru Huang, Huaxiang Song, Shuguo Wang, Qianjie Wang and Yang Sun

Prescribed fire management impacts on forest succession trajectories in future southern Appalachian forests

Kate Jones, Jelena Vukomanovic, Zachary J. Robbins and Robert M. Scheller

Loop reinforcement as a mechanism of self-organization

Patrick Kangas

Through the macroscope: Applying HT Odum's models to novel ecosystems

Kelly Chinners Reiss

Towards a disease digital twin: Howard T. Odum's legacy for cancer biology and medicine

F. Surra, L. Conte, E. Cavarzerani, F. Rizzolio, A. Romano and F. Gonella

Modern colonialism in carbon markets? Insights from emergy accounting

Pedro Pierucci, Feni Agostinho, Federico Sulis, Cecília M.V.B. Almeida and Biagio F. Giannetti

A model for the dynamics of roosting in buildings by a Neotropical aerial-insectivorous bat

Lilia M. Ladino, Diana C. Vallejo and Francisco Sánchez

Integrating interspecific traits into biophysical models of seagrass dispersal

Douchan Hanuise, Thomas Dobbelaere, Severine Choukroun, Michael A. Rasheed, Jonathan Lambrechts, Paul H. York, Timothy M. Smith, Robert G. Coles, Emmanuel Hanert and Alana Grech

Multi-country pine species allocation under different climate scenarios

Ricardo Cavalheiro, Ranga Raju Vatsavai, Gary Hodge and Juan Jose Acosta

A mechanistic stage-structured model for estimating maturation, mortality, and recruitment parameters of three economically significant fish species in Canadian waters

Sherif Eneye Shuaib, Ghislain Rutayisire, Qing Han, Amy Veprauskas and Jude Dzevela Kong

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Weichao Guo, Mohammad Safeeq, Guotao Cui, Philip C. Myint, Panmei Jiang, Han Guo, Michael L. Goulden, Kristen D. Emmett, Stephen C. Hart and Roger C. Bales

A state-space model for estimating pinniped pup production from serial counts at breeding colonies

Eiren K. Jacobson, Mia R. Goldman, Len Thomas and Debbie J.F. Russell

Modeling seasonality of the Babesia canis infection using SEIRS model with periodic contact rate

Maja Krcmar, Milica Kovačević Filipović and Jelena Ajtić

Simulation of carbon fluxes from Tibetan Plateau grasslands by integrating data assimilation and parameter inversion within the Biome-BGC model

Jingzhou Zhang, Tao Zhou, Li Cao, Jingyu Zeng, Yajie Zhang, Qi Zhang, Xuemei Wu, Yancheng Qu, E. Tan and Xia Liu

Fishing effort displacement drives ecosystem impacts within and beyond marine protected areas

Logan Binch, Jan Jaap Poos and Karen van de Wolfshaar

Spatial variability in defoliation dynamics during spruce budworm outbreaks: A landscape perspective

Olaloudé Judicaël Franck Osse, Philippe Marchand and Miguel Montoro Girona

H.T. Odum’s contributions to springs ecology and treatment wetlands

Robert L. Knight

Are locally trained allometric functions of forest aboveground biomass universal across spatial scales and forest disturbance scenarios?

Benedikt Hartweg, Leonard Schulz, Andreas Huth, Konstantinos Papathanassiou and Lukas W. Lehnert

Reservoir methane emission response to varying organic carbon loads under multiple socioeconomic development scenarios

Guni Xiang, Zhihao Xu, Kaiheng Chen, Pan Yang, Jingchuan Xue, Sibo Zhang and Weilun Gao

Simulation and analysis of dengue transmission dynamics using advanced fuzzy arithmetic

Nurfatihah Abdullah, Wan Munirah Wan Mohamad, Tahir Ahmad and Sumarni Abu Bakar

Modeling assessment of carrying capacities of kelp and bivalve polyculture bay based on ecological model

Xuehai Liu, Xuelei Zhang, Shang Chen, Xinming Pu, Dapeng Qu and Zongjun Xu

Citizen scientists as butterfly predators: using foraging theory to understand individual recorder behaviour

Mingrui Li, Robin J. Boyd, Chloë Smith, Richard Fox, David Roy, Jonathan Bennie and Richard H. ffrench-Constant

Modelling 22-years of changes in productivity of the red sea urchin Loxechinus albus in southern Chile using the pre-image population analysis: insights for fishery and conservation management

Marco Ortiz and Josué Diaz

Exploring the evolution of socio-ecological systems through agent-based modeling in Resuloğlu Höyük (North-Central Anatolia) during the early bronze age (4300–4100 BP)

Kemal Koçaklı, Neriman Erdem and Bülent Arıkan

Implications of trends in net energy return of energy sources for climate and society: revisiting H.T. and Elisabeth Odum’s “a prosperous way down”

Elliott T. Campbell

Evolution of climate responses could alter forest dynamics under climate change even over short time-spans

Dean Wu, Nikole Vannest and Emily V. Moran

Comparison of marginal and mixed-effects complementary log-log regression models for predicting planted silver birch mortality

Jouni Siipilehto and Daesung Lee

Advancing the diagnosis of poverty traps: A regional application of Emergy Theory and the 5SEnSU model in Brazil

Biagio F. Giannetti, Glauco A.do Nascimento, Luiz Ghelmandi Netto, Rafael Araujo Nacimento, Fernando J.C. Demétrio, Cecília M.V.B. Almeida and Feni Agostinho

Integrating human and natural systems from a global systems perspective

John W. Day, William H. Conner, Katherine C. Ewel, Rachael Hunter, G. Paul Kemp, Robert Lane, Jay Martin, William Mitsch, Victor H. Rivera-Monroy and John Rybczyk

H.T. Odum and sustainable development

Erik Grönlund

Thermodynamic exploration of the adaptive cycle

Mostafa Sadeghi Ghuchani and Brian D. Fath

Bayesian model averaging of climate-dependent forest models using Expectation–Maximization

Nicolas Picard, Nikola Besic, Modeste Meliho, Julien Sainte-Marie, Frédéric Mortier and Myriam Legay

Evaluating ecological redline policies: Integrating multi-scenario land use simulation with ecological network analysis

Yan Zhang, Xinyi Yin, Yufei Li, Junqing Wei, Haofeng Wang, Peiheng Yu and Yiyun Chen

Adult survival of Dalbulus maidis during the maize off-season under diverse environmental conditions: A stochastic modeling approach

R.H. Barriga Rubio and M. Otero

Construction and evolution of river basin ecological network based on circuit theory and MSPA: A case study of Dawen River Basin

Fangyuan Zhang, Xinlong Liu and Yanyan Jia