 Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall in large portfolios: A general dynamic factor model approachMarc Hallin and Carlos Trucíos () Econometrics and Statistics, 2023, vol. 27, issue C, 1-15 Abstract: Beyond their importance from the regulatory policy point of view, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) play an important role in risk management, portfolio allocation, capital level requirements, trading systems, and hedging strategies. However, due to the curse of dimensionality, their accurate estimation and forecast in large portfolios is quite a challenge. To tackle this problem, two procedures are proposed. The first one is based on a filtered historical simulation method in which high-dimensional conditional covariance matrices are estimated via a general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional factor space and conditionally heteroscedastic factors; the other one is based on a residual-based bootstrap scheme. The two procedures are applied to a panel with concentration ratio close to one. Backtesting and scoring results indicate that both VaR and ES are accurately estimated under both methods, which both outperform the existing alternatives. Keywords: Conditional covariance; High-dimensional time series; Large panels; Risk measures; Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:27:y:2023:i:c:p:1-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.04.006 Access Statistics for this article Econometrics and Statistics is currently edited by E.J. Kontoghiorghes, H. Van Dijk and A.M. Colubi More articles in Econometrics and Statistics from Elsevier |
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