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Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe

Roman Horvath, Lubos Komarek () and Filip Rozsypal

Economic Systems, 2011, vol. 35, issue 4, 523-536

Abstract: This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-à-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.

Keywords: Money; Inflation; Forecasting; Central Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E52 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:4:p:523-536

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001

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