The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach

Zsuzsanna Hosszú

Economic Systems, 2018, vol. 42, issue 1, 32-44

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of credit supply shocks on the macroeconomy and estimates a new financial conditions index. We calculated two credit supply factors using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. The first factor is identified as the willingness to lend, while the second factor is the lending capacity. The impact of these two types of shocks and their changes over time is examined using Hungarian data. The two types of lending shocks affect macro variables rather differently: a positive lending capacity shock (in a banking system mostly owned by non-residents) influences GDP through a decrease in country risk and the easing of monetary policy, while willingness to lend primarily increases lending activity. The two financial shocks also differ in terms of their evolution over time: deviations from the average in the impact of a willingness to lend shock usually occur for short periods of time and are of a small degree between the various quarters. However, in the case of lending capacity, certain trends can be observed: before the crisis, the stability of the banking system played an increasing role in country risk, whereas after 2008 it appears that monetary policy paid increasing attention to financial stability. Finally, a new type of financial conditions index is quantified based on our estimates, which measures the impact of the banking system’s lending activity on GDP growth.

Keywords: Dynamic factor model; Financial conditions index; Credit supply shocks; Time-varying parameter VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C38 C58 E17 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362518300426
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:32-44

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2017.05.007

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Systems is currently edited by R. Frensch

More articles in Economic Systems from Elsevier Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().