Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen

Askar Mukashov, Clemens Breisinger (), Wilfried Engelke and Manfred Wiebelt ()

Economic Systems, 2022, vol. 46, issue 1

Abstract: Evidence-based planning for countries in the midst of conflict is often constrained by missing data and the lack of appropriate analytical tools. To overcome these constraints, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model combined with systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to investigate the impact of conflict on Yemen’s economy and to analyze potential pathways for recovery after the conflict finally ends. Our results suggest that conflict-related disruptions in agriculture and mining sent devastating shockwaves throughout the economy, accounting for the lion’s share of the country’s economic losses and increase in poverty. Our results suggest that supporting agriculture should take the highest priority, as reconstruction of that sector, followed by the mining sector, has the largest positive impact on growth and poverty reduction. However, our estimates also suggest that the restoration of its prewar economic status quo is unlikely. In addition to serving as a direct input for Yemen’s reconstruction planning, our paper also demonstrates the usefulness of overarching models for conflict and postconflict economic assessments.

Keywords: Conflict; Economy-wide modeling; Middle East; Reconstruction; Uncertainty; Yemen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D58 I38 O19 O21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:46:y:2022:i:1:s0939362522000024

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100940

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