Regional (economic) integration, political stability uncertainty and (intra-African) exports

Essotanam Mamba, Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra and Kodjo Evlo

Economic Systems, 2025, vol. 49, issue 2

Abstract: The economic literature reports ambiguous effects of regional economic integration (REI) and political stability on exports. Therefore, this research analyzes the effects of REI and political stability on intra-African exports, compares them to the effects on intra-African imports and explores the combined effect of REI and political stability on intra-African exports. We use the two-stage least squares and fixed-effects approach which includes the two-step feasible generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to address endogeneity issues in a panel of 49 African countries over the period of 1996–2022. The results show that REI and political stability lead to an increase in intra-African exports. However, while REI results in an increase in intra-African imports, political stability results in a decrease; similar findings are highlighted for overall intra-African trade as well as for total exports of goods and services. The results remain robust across diverse estimation techniques. Furthermore, they reveal that political stability plays a role in amplifying the relationship between REI and intra-African exports. Supporting the African Continental Free Trade Area agenda, these findings imply that African policymakers need to (i) strengthen REI to increase intra-African trade and (ii) improve political stability to ensure that a greater part of REI is canalized in a more effective way in order to boost intra-African exports.

Keywords: Regional economic integration; Political stability uncertainty; Intra-African exports and imports; International exports; Instrumental variables approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:49:y:2025:i:2:s0939362524000888

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101266

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