Should I stay or should I go? An empirical analysis of consumer behavior using airline web-traffic data

Alex Marsh, Garrett Scott, Drew Van Kuiken and Jonathan W. Williams

Economics of Transportation, 2025, vol. 43, issue C

Abstract: We analyze consumer search and purchase behavior in response to airline revenue-management practices using data from a major carrier’s website and Google Flights. We first describe patterns in search timing, purchase decisions, and paid fares. Then we estimate a multinomial logistic regression to identify factors driving search timing, finding that single adults with loyalty status, especially booking one-way nonstop itineraries, tend to search closer to departure. Next, we use a binary logistic model of conversions of searches to sales, showing that competitors’ prices and changing customer composition explain rising conversion probabilities as departure nears. Finally, using a fixed-effects regression, we reveal how search and booking patterns affect prices paid. Late-arriving travelers, particularly single adults with loyalty status, pay substantially more, consistent with the airline’s pricing strategies that segment more inelastic customers. Overall, our findings underscore how revenue-management, competitor fares, and consumer characteristics jointly shape online search and purchase behavior.

Keywords: Airlines; Search; Bookings; Demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L1 L93 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecotra:v:43:y:2025:i:c:s2212012225000334

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100425

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