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Technology-investing countries and stock return predictability

Paresh Kumar Narayan, Dinh Hoang Bach Phan and Seema Narayan

Emerging Markets Review, 2018, vol. 36, issue C, 159-179

Abstract: For 77 technology-investing countries we test whether their stock market returns are predictable. We find that exchange rate returns and U.S. stock excess returns predict stock market returns for most countries in our sample, while crude oil and inflation predict returns of less than 40% of countries. While in out-of-sample tests the evidence of predictability declines, U.S. returns still beat the constant returns model for three-quarters of countries in our sample. A portfolio of all 77 countries offers a mean-variance investor annualized profits of between 5.7% and 8.0%, and profits are maximized when return forecasts are based on U.S. returns.

Keywords: Technology; Profits; Stock returns; Predictability; Portfolio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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