How does Russia's economy affect the region? Transmission channels and policy options

Shant Arzoumanian

Emerging Markets Review, 2024, vol. 63, issue C

Abstract: This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia's output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

Keywords: Spillovers; International business cycles; Trade; Remittances; FDI; Market confidence; Emerging markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E32 F1 F3 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ememar:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s1566014124001006

DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101205

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