Predicting tail-related risk measures: The consequences of using GARCH filters for non-GARCH data

Amine Jalal and Michael Rockinger ()

Journal of Empirical Finance, 2008, vol. 15, issue 5, 868-877

Abstract: We investigate the consequences for Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall purposes of using a GARCH filter on various mis-specified processes. In general, we find that the McNeil and Frey (McNeil, A.J. and R. Frey, 2000, Estimation of Tail-Related Risk Measures for Heteroscedastic Financial Time Series: An Extreme Value Approach, Journal of Empirical Finance 7, 271-300.) two step procedure has very good forecasting properties. Using an unconditional non-filtered tail estimate also appears to perform satisfactorily for expected shortfall measurements but less so for VaR computations. Methods assuming specific densities such as the Gaussian or Student-t may yield wrong predictions. Thus, the use of an adequacy test for filtered data to given densities appears relevant. The paper builds on recent techniques to obtain thresholds for extreme value computations. Statistical tests for the expected shortfall, based on the circular bootstrap, are developed.

Keywords: Extreme; value; theory; Value-at-Risk; (VaR); Expected; shortfall; GARCH; Markov; switching; Jump; diffusion; Backtesting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Working Paper: Predicting Tail-related Risk Measures: The Consequences of Using GARCH Filters for non-GARCH Data (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:5:p:868-877

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