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Smooth volatility shifts and spillovers in U.S. crude oil and corn futures markets

Pavel Teterin, Robert Brooks () and Walter Enders ()

Journal of Empirical Finance, 2016, vol. 38, issue PA, 22-36

Abstract: Recent developments in biofuel technologies have resulted in heightened linkages between the petroleum and agricultural sectors. As such, a large price and/or volatility shift experienced in one sector is now more likely to spill-over into the other. In trying to capture the interrelations present in the two markets, we take seriously the importance of properly modeling smooth structural shifts. We incorporate trigonometric functions into a multivariate GARCH model of crude and corn futures prices in order to obtain the empirical volatility response functions and the time-varying correlation coefficient. Although both short-term and long-term futures exhibit shifts in the mean and volatility, volatility shifts do not manifest themselves in the same manner for different maturities. This indicates that the term structure of futures volatility changes over time.

Keywords: Corn futures; Crude oil futures; Multivariate GARCH; Volatility breaks; Fourier flexible form; Variance impulse response function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G13 Q10 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Journal of Empirical Finance is currently edited by R. T. Baillie, F. C. Palm, Th. J. Vermaelen and C. C. P. Wolff

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