Beta dispersion and market timing

Laura-Chloé Kuntz

Journal of Empirical Finance, 2020, vol. 59, issue C, 235-256

Abstract: The beta dispersion, which is the spread of betas on a stock market, can be interpreted as a measure of market vulnerability. This study examines the economic idea of the beta dispersion and its application as a market return predictor. Based on the empirical beta dispersion observed in the US equity market, the study develops measures to predict future market returns. These dispersion measures have substantial predictive power for future market movements. Moreover, I show that the information content of beta dispersion can be successfully exploited by market timing strategies with the help of distributional regressions. The innovative application of this novel approach of modeling the relationship between multiple variables appears to be quite useful for timing strategies.

Keywords: Time-varying beta; Market return predictability; Systematic risk; Distributional regression; Market timing; Investment strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G11 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539820300578
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:empfin:v:59:y:2020:i:c:p:235-256

DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2020.09.003

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Empirical Finance is currently edited by R. T. Baillie, F. C. Palm, Th. J. Vermaelen and C. C. P. Wolff

More articles in Journal of Empirical Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().