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Disagreement, speculation, and the idiosyncratic volatility

Jianqiu Wang, Ke Wu, Jiening Pan and Ying Jiang

Journal of Empirical Finance, 2023, vol. 72, issue C, 232-250

Abstract: We propose that speculative trading plays an important role in explaining the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) puzzle and its associated empirical patterns in the joint presence of investor disagreement and short-sale constraints. Our analysis shows that: (i) the return spread between high and low IVOL quintile portfolios is closely related to both aggregate and firm-level disagreement, (ii) the common IVOL (CIV) factor is directly correlated with aggregate disagreement, and (iii) such correlation between the IVOL puzzle and disagreement presents mainly among stocks that are more likely short-sale constrained. Overall, we provide a unified mechanism that high aggregate disagreement leads to more firm-level speculative trading, which is consistent with a factor structure in IVOL and positive correlations between stock β, the IVOL puzzle, and trading volume.

Keywords: Disagreement; Speculative trading; Learning; Idiosyncratic volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G14 G40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:empfin:v:72:y:2023:i:c:p:232-250

DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.011

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Journal of Empirical Finance is currently edited by R. T. Baillie, F. C. Palm, Th. J. Vermaelen and C. C. P. Wolff

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