 Oil price volatility and new evidence from news and TwitterHooman Abdollahi Energy Economics, 2023, vol. 122, issue C Abstract: In this paper, we develop semantic-based sentiment indices through relevant news and Twitter feeds for oil market using a state-of-the-art natural language processing technique. We investigate the predictability of crude oil price volatility using the novel sentiment indices through a hybrid structure consisting of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and bidirectional long short-term memory models. Findings show that media sentiment considerably enhances forecasting quality and the proposed framework outperforms existing benchmark models. More importantly, we compare the predictive power of news stories with Twitter feeds and document the superiority of the news sentiment index over the counterpart. This is an important contribution as this paper is the first study that compares the impact of regular press with that of social media, as an alternative informative medium, on oil market dynamics. Keywords: Oil price volatility; News sentiment; Twitter sentiment; Forecasting; Media and market (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:122:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002098 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106711 Access Statistics for this article Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier |
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