Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies

Jie Lin, Hao Xiao and Jian Chai

Energy Economics, 2023, vol. 124, issue C

Abstract: Interest in oil price shocks' economic effects has grown in recent years. However, previous studies mostly failed to clarify the dynamic transmissions of oil price shocks on representative economies from global and driver perspectives, even ignoring oil price fluctuations when linking oil prices and economy together. This paper examines the dynamic relationships and driving intermediations between multiple oil price shocks and macroeconomy by applying Bayesian vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility and time-varying parameters, using the USA, China, the Euro-19, and Japan as research objects. Results show that, in the whole sample, all oil prices have the strongest effects on Japan, followed by China, Euro-19, and the USA, with possible directional differences. All oil prices' economic effects intensified during the crisis and Covid-19, accompanying significant oil price fluctuations. Regarding asymmetry, in the whole sample and critical times, stronger effects of rising oil prices show in the short term, but opposite in the long term. Consumer price, interest rate, and exchange rate are the general intermediations of oil prices in China and the USA, Euro-19, and Japan, respectively, and exchange rate is the additional intermediation in China, Euro-19, and Japan during the crisis and Covid-19. Overall, the results are solid.

Keywords: Oil price shocks; Major economies; Dynamic economic effects; Driving intermediations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323002773
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:124:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002773

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106779

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().