Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals

Jamel Saadaoui, Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 142, issue C

Abstract: We use constant and time-varying parameter local projection (TVP-LP) regression models to examine the effect of geopolitical risk on prices of six critical minerals: aluminium, copper, nickel, platinum, tin and zinc. We propose a conceptual framework in which the responsiveness of prices for critical minerals to geopolitical risk depends on the non-technical risk associated with procuring each critical mineral and geopolitical threats have a bigger effect on critical mineral prices than geopolitical acts. Our results are generally consistent with these predictions. We find considerable evidence that the effect of geopolitical risk on the prices of critical minerals is time varying, with the Gulf War, 9/11 terrorist attacks and COVID-19 pandemic each having a significant effect. We find that shocks due to geopolitical threats are generally bigger in magnitude than geopolitical acts and that prices respond more quickly to geopolitical threats.

Keywords: Critical minerals; Energy security; Geopolitical risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 Q20 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325000180
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Ensuring the Security of the Clean Energy Transition: Examining the Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Price of Critical Minerals (2024)
Working Paper: Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals (2024)
Working Paper: Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals (2024)
Working Paper: Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:142:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325000180

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108195

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().