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Climate change and Carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management

Anh H. Le

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 146, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the macro-financial impact of carbon policy and the role of reserve requirements in managing climate-related transition risks. Empirical evidence shows that carbon policy shocks lead to a 0.7% output loss, a 0.3% rise in inflation, financial instability, and sectoral reallocation effects. Using a macro-financial DSGE model with environmental features, the model predicts that a 40% GHG emissions reduction results in a 0.7% output loss, while achieving net-zero emissions over 30 years causes a 2.7% medium-term output loss. The analysis underscores the banking sector’s amplified role during the transition and the benefits of pre-announced carbon policies in reducing inflation volatility by 0.2%. Utilizing a heterogeneous approach with macroprudential tools, I find that optimal macroprudential tools can mitigate the output loss by 0.1% and investment loss by 0.5%. Importantly, my work highlights the use of capital flow management in the green transition.

Keywords: Climate change; Environmental policy; Optimal policy; Transition risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 E17 E32 E52 Q54 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:146:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003251

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108501

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Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

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